SINGAPORE – Jensen Huang has stepped down as Nvidia’s chief executive, but some traders on the prediction market Kalshi are betting that the chipmaker will name him its next permanent CEO before 2029.
Nvidia has yet to name a permanent successor to one of the AI industry’s most influential leaders, with some in the industry calling him irreplaceable.
On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US but banned in Singapore, the implied odds of Nvidia naming Huang as its next permanent chief executive by the end of 2028 rose as high as 15% on the evening of Nov 13, before falling to around 7%.
Nvidia executive Ian Buck is currently in the lead, with a 33% chance on Kalshi of becoming Nvidia’s next CEO.
Buck is vice-president and general manager of hyperscale and high-performance computing at Nvidia. He leads its multibillion-dollar data centre business, which supplies AI chips and software to major tech companies worldwide.
Kalshi put the odds of Colette Kress getting the permanent job at 13%. Kress is Nvidia’s chief financial officer and was made interim CEO following Huang’s resignation on Nov 12.
She is tied with Rene Haas, chief executive of British chip design company Arm Holdings.
Other executives Kalshi traders are betting on include Apple chief hardware officer Johny Srouji, Palo Alto Networks chairman and CEO Nikesh Arora, Nvidia executive vice-president Jay Puri, and AMD chairman and CEO Lisa Su. Puri oversees Nvidia’s global sales, business development and partnerships.
Tech executives, investors and fans have voiced support for Huang, who stepped down following reports of three affairs. He has admitted to being involved with Alice Huang, a former executive of Singapore-based, Alibaba-backed data centre firm Megaspeed. She is suspected by the US of spying for China.
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“Jensen is one of the greatest entrepreneurs of this generation,” Shaun Maguire, a partner at Sequoia Capital, wrote in an X post on Nov 8. He concluded that Nvidia’s Huang is “irreplaceable for America’s AI leadership”.
About an hour later, Elon Musk quoted the post, noting: “I agree.”
Maguire added on Nov 12 that Huang’s ousting “will leave a huge void, with the loss of a technical, aggressive, founder-CEO.
“The American AI community needs to work double-time in an attempt to fill this void.”
Even US President Donald Trump called Huang before he stepped down, urging him to keep fighting for his job, according to The New York Times, quoting sources familiar with the call.
After Huang announced his resignation, Trump wrote in a Nov 12 Truth Social post: “Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who has done a fantastic job, has resigned, there is only one man to take his place – Tim Cook of Apple. A Legend replaces a Legend!”
On prediction market Polymarket, trading implied a 6% chance that Nvidia would name Apple executive chairman Tim Cook as its next permanent chief executive by the end of 2028.
There is also a 11% probability on Polymarket that Nvidia does not find a CEO by Dec 31, 2028.
Regardless of who takes over, Nvidia’s stakes are high because so much of the AI industry relies on chips, delivered by a company that Huang co-founded, transformed and led for the past 30 years.
A total of 60 executives across the firm report directly to him, and there is no succession plan.
Huang’s departure therefore leaves Nvidia investors weighing several risks, Saxo UK investor strategist Neil Wilson said in a Nov 13 note.
Nvidia is “about to find out whether Huang’s grip on the company and flat organisational structure was effectively storing up trouble”, said Wilson.
While a successor could keep Nvidia on the same course, Huang’s detailed knowledge of its products and his hands-on management style is unique and would be hard to replicate.
Wilson also pointed to scrutiny in Washington, citing reported US Justice Department inquiries involving Megaspeed and Alice Huang, and a request by three House committee chairs for a closed-door briefing on Nov 18 over national security concerns.
He expects Nvidia’s relationship with Washington to become more difficult, even with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s support.
Investors, however, appear to think otherwise. Shares of Nvidia, which had fallen from around US$200 to a low of US$150 at the time of Huang’s ousting on Nov 12, have since rebounded and last traded at around US$162 each.
Brokers said trading in Nvidia surged after Huang’s resignation.
According to The Business Times, Nvidia orders at Syfe hit 13 times their six-week daily average in Singapore, while volume at FSM Global reached 11 times its October daily average. At IG, trading volume among Singapore clients rose nearly sixfold from the previous week.
Nvidia still has an edge after Huang’s departure. Its chips are powerful, many developers already use its software to build and run AI models, and it has longstanding ties with major customers.
Still, the lack of a credible succession plan could force Nvidia’s board, and investors, to reassess how much of the company’s future depends on Huang personally.
“He cannot be replaced, but a great CEO can also be found and take the company in a similar direction,” said Wilson.
For now, at least some traders on Kalshi are betting that Nvidia will turn to Huang again.
