SEOUL – South Korea’s exports maintained strong growth in October, with an artificial intelligence-driven boom continuing to power the trade-reliant economy.
Exports adjusted for working-day differences climbed 76.1% from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources data released on Nov 1. The value of shipments reached US$115.3 billion (S$147 billion), following the previous month’s record US$121.1 billion.
On an unadjusted basis, exports rose 93.7%, while imports increased 36%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$42.5 billion. That compared with a revised 83.7% export increase in September.
The continued strength adds to the case for the Bank of Korea (BOK) to raise interest rates in November after policymakers stood pat in October to assess the impact of consecutive increases in July and August. Inflation data due on Nov 3 will provide another key input before the BOK’s decision on Nov 26.
Semiconductors continued to be the main driver of the gains, with chip exports surging 259% from a year earlier to US$56.4 billion. Shipments of computers rose 497%, while petroleum products and cars gained 80%, and 18%, respectively.
Calendar effects may have complicated the comparisons. The Chuseok holidays fell in September 2026 and October 2025, making working day-adjusted figures a useful gauge of underlying trade momentum.
The export boom is also putting South Korea on course to exceed US$1 trillion in annual shipments for the first time in 2026, BOK Governor Shin Hyun-song said. That would make it the fourth economy to reach the milestone after the United States, China and Germany, according to the trade ministry.
The figures suggest South Korea’s export engine remained strong at the start of the fourth quarter, even as the benefits of the chip boom have yet to spread evenly across the economy. That divergence complicates the BOK’s task as it weighs strong growth and above-target inflation against weak household demand.
The economy expanded 1% in the third quarter from the previous three months, beating economists’ forecasts for a 0.8% gain. Facility investment jumped 4.1%, but private consumption fell 0.2%, underscoring the uneven benefits of the semiconductor boom.
The BOK expects growth in 2026 and 2027 to substantially exceed its August projections of 3.3% and 2.9%, respectively. It has pointed to continued strength in semiconductor exports and investment, while expecting improving incomes to gradually support a broader consumption recovery.
Governor Shin said monetary policy will remain restrictive until officials are confident inflation will converge to the bank’s 2% target. The BOK will also release updated growth and inflation forecasts with its November rate decision.
Inflation remains a constraint on policymakers even as household demand struggles. Consumer prices rose 2.9% in September from a year earlier, while core inflation excluding food and energy registered 2.8%. Both eased from August but remained well above the BOK’s target.
The won’s appreciation has helped curb imported inflation. Continued export strength and large trade surpluses could support further currency gains, although the pace of any appreciation will also depend on capital flows and global market conditions. Bloomberg
