SINGAPORE – Asian stocks rose and the dollar held its ground on Sept 18 as global policymakers ramp up efforts to rein in inflation, with a dip in oil prices improving investor sentiment ahead of an expected rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Monetary policy response is in focus this week as the over six-month-long war in the Middle East shows few signs of ending, keeping oil prices above US$100 a barrel and fanning inflation fears across the globe.
Hopes of alternate ways for oil supply from the Middle East to reach markets pushed Brent crude futures down 1 per cent to US$103.77 a barrel even as concerns about strikes between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis lingered.
Traders also took their cues from a rally on Wall Street overnight, led by beaten-down tech stocks.
Bond prices steadied after another brutal selloff this week that took the 10-year US Treasury beyond 5 per cent to its highest since 2007. It was last at 4.93 per cent.
In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.55 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei was 0.9 per cent higher while tech-heavy South Korea’s KOSPI surged 2 per cent.
The Bank of England warned on Sept 17 it may have to hike rates if the Middle East war drags on, while the US Federal Reserve raised rates on Sept 16 for the first time in three years and flagged more in the coming months.
The European Central Bank last week also cautioned the need for further tightening as it raised rates.
“If bonds reverse and yields push higher again, volatility could quickly return,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
“For now, though, the buyers have regained some control, and the price action suggests the post-Fed risk-off move has lost momentum.”
Yen awaits Japan’s central bank verdict
The yen softened to 156.23 per US dollar in early trading as traders braced for the policy decision from the Japanese central bank later in the day.
The BOJ is set to raise interest rates to a 31-year high and pledge to deliver more to counter inflation risks.
“The key as such for markets is not just whether BOJ hikes, but also how it hikes and the communication by Governor Ueda on the path moving forward,” said Michael Wan, currency strategist at MUFG.
The yen has rallied in September on expectations of a faster pace of rate hikes from the BOJ and early signs of repatriation from Japanese investors.
However, it has given up some of those gains this week as the US central bank took a hawkish turn.
“With a 25 basis point hike fully priced, the hike alone should do little to support the yen,” said Sarah Hammoud, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“Governor Ueda will need to convince markets that the BOJ is inclined to hike rates at a faster pace. We expect the BOJ to hike rates again in December. We consider the risk is that Ueda fails to match the market’s hawkish expectations.”
The euro was steady at US$1.148, but on course for a 1 per cent drop for the week, its biggest drop since June.
In commodities, spot gold rose 0.5 per cent to US$4,361 an ounce. REUTERS
