Brent oil fluctuated near a five-month high as traders weighed the risk of further Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz against robust crude flows from the Persian Gulf.
The global benchmark was just below US$110 a barrel, near the highest since May, while the most-active West Texas Intermediate contract was close to US$99.
Iran has “no choice” but to assert control over Hormuz to safeguard the country’s security, First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref said on Oct 19, according to a report from state-run news agency IRNA.
Despite a recent flare-up in hostilities around the waterway, crude exports from the Gulf have continued at an accelerated pace.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News that flows had recovered to about 80% of their prewar level, although refined-product shipments remained constrained.
Brent has surged about 80% in 2026 as widening conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine disrupt energy supplies. Refined products have rallied even harder, with European diesel futures surging.
Renewed attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure are keeping geopolitical risk elevated even as Persian Gulf crude flows recover.
“The risks to oil prices clearly lie to the upside,” said Hamad Hussain, a commodities economist at Capital Economics. The escalation in attacks on ships raises the possibility of a “renewed fall in oil supply and a continued rise in prices”, he added.
Iran’s Aref said the Islamic Republic could ensure safe passage through Hormuz for friendly nations, but warned that the “the US is now the cause of the current situation and must pay the price”. He made the comments during a meeting in Tajikistan with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
Iraq is among Persian Gulf producers that have ramped up crude flows, with the country’s oil minister saying exports have exceeded 3.4 million barrels a day so far in October.
Shipments are now close to prewar levels after the OPEC member offered deep discounts to regional benchmarks.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is authorising the sale of sanctioned oil tankers so they can legitimately ship crude, according to Wright.
The move is aimed at expanding capacity as the US-Iran war strains supply and drives up freight costs. He estimated there are about 1,600 vessels in the global “dark fleet”. BLOOMBERG
