Australia’s weather bureau warned on Tuesday that an El Nino weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify to become one of the strongest in seven decades.
Sea surface temperatures in the region exceeded El Nino thresholds and atmospheric indicators all aligned with the phenomenon that brings extremes of weather, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
“Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Nino event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific,” it said in a statement.
“Around half of the models indicate this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950.”
A periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, El Nino is linked to less rainfall in winter and spring, particularly on Australia’s east coast and higher southern daytime temperatures, the bureau said.
The weather phenomenon is particularly damaging to Australia as it affects agricultural production in the country, which ranks among the world’s largest exporters of wheat, sugar and beef.
The last El Nino experienced in Australia from 2023 to 2024 caused the driest three-month period on record.
One of the strongest such events, occurring in 2015 and 2016, brought widespread drought and reduced grain and oilseed output.
Scientists have said climate change will supercharge the effects of this year’s El Nino.
© Thomson Reuters 2026.
