More than two months after her party’s landslide victory in the general election, a series of local election defeats have begun to weigh on ruling party lawmakers despite Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s relatively high popularity.
While some members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party claim local factors affect voting in gubernatorial and mayoral races, the losses of candidates backed by the LDP have prompted a deeper analysis and reflection ahead of unified elections next spring when leader Takaichi’s popularity will be put to the test.
The LDP’s local chapter in the western Japanese prefecture of Shiga recently decided not to field a candidate against the three-term incumbent governor in the gubernatorial election this summer, partly to avoid another loss for the ruling party.
“We cannot fight a losing race under the current circumstances,” a senior official of the local chapter said.
Ahead of the decision, the LDP headquarters had encouraged the local chapter to abandon its plan to put a candidate forward in what is expected to be a “competitive race,” according to a source familiar with the situation.
The development could fuel inaction in local operations at a time when Takaichi is trying to further strengthen her party to “continue winning in elections” heading into next year.
In the months following the LDP’s landslide win in the House of Representatives election on Feb. 8, candidates supported by the party lost several races, including the Ishikawa gubernatorial election, in which Takaichi campaigned for the incumbent.
Despite receiving support from Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike, who is serving her third term amid relatively solid support from Tokyoites, the LDP’s candidate lost to an independent in the mayoral election for the capital’s Nerima Ward.
In a town in the southwestern Japanese prefecture of Fukuoka, where former Prime Minister Taro Aso has his electorate, the LDP-endorsed incumbent mayor of Kama was defeated. Aso helped Takaichi become LDP head, and thus prime minister, and currently serves as the party’s vice president.
“It reflects a lack of support for a continuation of the political status quo,” LDP Secretary General Shunichi Suzuki told reporters recently.
“We need to carefully analyze voter sentiment,” he added.
Nevertheless, some in the LDP seem unconvinced by the losing trend and are taking it in stride.
At a recent press conference, Executive Acting Secretary General Koichi Hagiuda said that each election has its own local dynamics and factors driving it. He doubted the legitimacy of the “narrative” portraying the losses as simply defeats for the LDP.
Six months into her term, Takaichi continues to enjoy high approval ratings, which have helped her party gain control of a supermajority in the powerful lower house, despite being embroiled in a series of scandals during her predecessors’ terms.
The outcome has led Takaichi to claim that she has received a public mandate to push for bold — and potentially controversial — policies, while her approach has also drawn criticism for being high-handed, most recently, when her ruling coalition rammed a state budget through the chamber.
The LDP has begun preparing for the unified elections that occur every four years, a concentrated period in the spring where multiple local elections are held close together to save administrative costs and boost turnout.
“Poor outcomes in the local elections will weaken our organization and we won’t be able to get good results in the House of Councilors election in 2028,” Takaichi told a meeting of local chapter executives in early April.
The upper house election would be critical for the ruling LDP and the Japan Innovation Party coalition, as they do not hold a majority in the 248-member chamber despite controlling the lower house.
Takaichi faces a host of challenges, especially the rising cost of living, exacerbated by the war in Iran and the resulting disruption to energy supplies, a major concern for voters.
© KYODO
