(Source from Reuters/Alamy)Each person has a different opinion on the future growth of the electric vehicle market and the battery industry.No one can say the answer, but at least personally, I think the battery and electric vehicle markets are still far from over.The reason for dividing the electric vehicle market and the battery market is that batteries are used more than electric vehicles, and electric vehicles cannot grow if they are not supplied by themselves.In order not to show this, the stance, which is to defend as much as possible in electric vehicle companies, is to collaborate with cell makers in the form of JV. Even if you do JV, it is not a concept that passes over technology from cell makers, so you have to continue to gain know-how beyond your shoulders.The idea that it is still impossible for electric vehicle companies to internalize 100% of their batteries is still valid. Even if it has 100% technology, it is difficult to mass-produce electric vehicles within a short period of time and it is difficult to bring battery power from cell makers in the electric vehicle industry.
The recall cost is trillion won, and startup electric car companies will unconditionally use a strategy of receiving batteries from cell makers (start-up electric car companies such as Rivian and Lucid), and existing internal combustion engines that are trying to cover this are stances to JV, but I don’t think they will go 100% independently. No, I don’t think I can make it.
What is the current situation in the electric vehicle industry? In the case of 22, the penetration rate of electric vehicles grew compared to last year. Compared to 8 percent last year, it has now risen to 12 percent, and sales of electric vehicles have still increased this year despite supply chain issues such as a shortage of automotive semiconductors, the Russia-Ukrainian War, and China blockade issues.Despite these unfavorable conditions, it is believed that much growth remains in the future in the transfer industry, which has grown by about 50% compared to last year. Currently, the electric vehicle market is showing different aspects by continent, and it can be largely divided into the U.S., Europe, and China markets. By country, China 12.7% -> 18% Europe 14.6% -> 19%
US 4.3% -> 8% US growth is very fast, and it seems to be a strong drive based on huge subsidies. The early markets were the same in China and Europe as in any country.
The European market is suffering from electric vehicle growth due to the Russian-Ukraine war. Lowest growth rate compared to other markets
China aims to reduce subsidies by 30% in 22 years and abolish them completely in 23 years. Will it continue to grow after the abolition of subsidies? The current growth rate will definitely slow down.If so, the growth of CATL and BYD, which have large positions in China’s domestic market, will also slow down. On the contrary, LG and SK, which have set foot in the U.S. market, are expected to continue to show good performance after the second half of 2022.What you have to see here is to check the parts of the U.S. market that are different in nature from other markets.In the U.S., which is called the Holy Land of Pickup Trucks, the LFP battery, which is relatively inferior to ordinary sedans and SUVs, cannot expand its power. It is SK’s NCM9 half or LG’s NCMA that is pushing for this power.Furthermore, since pickup trucks have 1.5 to 2 times more batteries than regular sedans, if they are sold in the same number, the growth of cell manufacturers sold in the U.S. will be stronger.In addition, in the case of the U.S. pickup truck market, domestic cell makers have a certain position, and in addition, future orders are already visible through the JV plant.
EJ SONG
ASIA JOURNAL
